The MET calorie formula
A MET (metabolic equivalent of task) measures an activity's intensity relative to sitting still, which is 1 MET. Calories burned per minute are:
Multiply by the number of minutes for the total. The 3.5 is resting oxygen use (ml/kg/min), and dividing by 200 converts oxygen to kilocalories. Heavier people burn more for the same activity because moving more mass costs more energy.
Worked example
Running 6 mph (9.8 MET) at 160 lb (72.6 kg) for 30 minutes:
Why estimates vary
MET values are population averages from the Compendium of Physical Activities. Your real burn depends on fitness, efficiency, terrain, temperature and effort, so treat the number as a ballpark — useful for comparing activities, not for precise calorie accounting. Fitness trackers using heart rate can be more personalized but are also imperfect.